Tonight’s game will be a great early-season test for the Dallas Mavericks. They haven’t looked all that good to start the 2021-22 season, but they’re still coming away with wins. What will happen when the Mavs take on an Eastern Conference powerhouse? Let’s get into it.
All odds are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook and are current as of 10 am CT, November 2.
Spread: Mavs +2.5 (-115)
Moneyline: Mavs +115
The injury bug is already biting the Mavericks. Kristaps Porzingis has missed the last few games with back tightness and is listed as questionable tonight. Maxi Kleber is out.
Porzingis’ availability doesn’t really affect how I’m going to bet the game tonight. When things are clicking for him, he helps the team, but things often aren’t clicking. Maxi is the guy I’m worried about missing.
This season, Maxi is shooting 47.8 percent on threes and has been the team’s best and most impactful defender. He spaces the floor for Luka Doncic and makes up for a number of mistakes the Mavs make on the defensive end. Without him, the Heat are going to be extremely difficult to beat.
On the other hand, the Mavs are undefeated at home this season and still have Luka on the roster. If the spread was a little bigger than 2.5 points, I’d pick the Mavs to cover, but I feel like the Heat are going to come away with a win in this one.
Advice: Stay away from tonight’s spread. If you feel confident in Luka’s ability to carry a shorthanded squad, sprinkle a little on the moneyline.
The Heat have one of the league’s best defenses. The Mavs are also up there. The difference between these two teams is on the offensive end of the court. The Heat are scoring 114 points per game to start the season and the Mavs are scoring a measly 98.3. That’s a ridiculous difference.
The Mavs can’t keep scoring fewer than 100 points, though, can they? They have Luka freaking Doncic on the team. 210 feels like a ridiculously low number, even though both teams have strong defenses.
Advice: Take the over. Eventually the Mavs have to score some points.
Two-Team Moneyline Parlay
Mavs and Bucks: +234
The Mavs have their hands full tonight, so if you’re going to put them in a two-team moneyline parlay, pair them with a team that you feel confident in. Tonight, for me, that team is the Bucks.
Milwaukee has been struggling with injuries to start the season, and their losses are piling up. For that reason, I can’t imagine they’re going to drop a winnable game against the Pistons — no matter who’s injured on the Bucks.
Advice: If you think the Mavs can beat the Heat, pair them up with the Bucks to get some great odds.