Today is a bittersweet moment for a particular MMB contributor. If you’ve ever been in one of Kirk’s greenroom sessions or follow me on Twitter, you’ve likely heard me rant about my admiration and longing for Spencer Dinwiddie. I believed Dinwiddie would have helped take this team to the next level. His ability to create his own shots while still being an above-average playmaker was exactly what this team needed.
For many Mavs fans, tonight will be their first time watching Dinwiddie play in a couple of years. That is where the dilemma comes in. If Dinwiddie has a terrible game, my Twitter mentions and text messages will be full of people telling me I’m an idiot, again. On the other hand, my love for the Mavericks supersedes my ego’s desire to be proven right. In an ideal world, Dinwiddie will drop a 50 point triple-double in a blowout loss.
Spread: Mavs -7.5(-d110)
Moneyline: Mavs -335
The line is inflated by the fact the Wizards played a game against the Oklahoma City Thunder last night. It was a tightly contested game that went down to the wire and forced the Wizards to play their starters for an extended period of time. Dinwiddie and Bradley Beal aren’t necessarily beacons of health and it's entirely possible that coach Wes Unseld Jr. opts to rest his two best players in a meaningless game. If the Mavericks come out hot and grab the lead early, the white flag may be raised. Betting this game comes down to whether or not you expect the Wizards to go for the win. If you do, I’d stay away from the spread. The Mavs should not be viewed as 8 points better than the Wizards under normal circumstances. If you expect the Wizards to prioritize health over a single win, pound the Mavs and the points.
Advice: Avoid the Moneyline, take the Mavs and the points.
Normally I would recommend the under in this scenario. The Mavericks average less than 110 points per game and haven’t been as explosive on offense as we’ve seen in years prior. Tonight, however, the high probability of a blowout exists. If the Dallas shooters catch fire, this could be an easy over.
Advice: Take over 210.5
Two-Team Moneyline Parlay
Mavs and Knicks +263
Because the Moneyline is so high, you need to find a heavy underdog in order to make the Parlay worthwhile. With Embiid likely back, that eliminates the Wolves against the 76ers. The Rockets are +5.5 underdogs against the Hornets but ultimately the Rockets stink. They’re out. That leaves us with the Magic(+8) against the Cavs and the Knicks(+5.5) against the Hawks. Under duress and the threat of extreme violence, I would go with the Knicks if forced to choose.
Advice: If you think the Mavs are a lock to win, getting the Knicks at +263 presents good value against another flawed Eastern Conference team.