The Dallas Mavericks have alternated wins and losses for the last five games. Coming off a win over the Spurs, that means they’re due for a loss if the trend continues. Will they snap the alternating streak?
Spread: Mavs -3.5 (-115)
Moneyline: Mavs -160
The looming question for tonight’s game is: Will Kristaps Porzingis play?
The bigger question in my mind is: Does it matter?
Whether or not Kristaps plays does matter for the Mavs’ goals this season. But does it impact how you should bet tonight’s game? That’s not as black and white.
In theory, Kristaps makes this Mavs team better. He’s huge. He can protect the rim a little. He can shoot threes. That’s perfect, right? Yes — as long as the Mavs aren’t force-feeding him mid-range postups, which is something we’ve seen too much of in his three games this season.
On the Celtics side of things, Jaylen Brown is out. That’s a big deal. Brown and Jayson Tatum are the two guys that make this Celtics team so difficult to beat. With Brown out, the challenge becomes significantly less frightening.
I’m confident in the Mavericks’ ability to pull out a win at home tonight, but it wouldn’t shock me if the Celtics keep this one close.
Advice: Bet the moneyline. The payout difference between that and the spread isn’t worth risking the Celtics pulling out a backdoor cover and losing the bet all together.
I know, I know, I know. The Mavs offense has been bad to start the 2021-22 season. I just can’t see that continuing for a team that has Luka Doncic. Eventually, it will turn. Even if that night isn’t tonight, it doesn’t take offensive wizardry to get the total score over 210. That’s low.
Also, unders are no fun to cheer for.
Advice: Throw a unit on the over.
Two-Team Moneyline Parlay
Mavs and Bulls: +152
The Sixers and the Bulls are finishing out their home-and-home two-game series tonight in Chicago. When they played in Philly the other night, the Sixers barely edged out a win. Tonight, with the game in Chicago and the buzz around that team, I just don’t see the Bulls losing. There’s no way they drop two in a row to this odd Sixers team.
Chicago has proven to be a quality team this year, so if you think the Mavs are going to beat the Celtics, you might as well throw the Bulls in with them in a parlay to get plus odds. Why not?
Advice: Throw a little on this parlay. The odds are good, and both teams should win.