You can’t go on a three game winning streak to rid fans of the bad taste in their mouth until you go on a one-game winning streak. The Mavs have the opportunity to do just that against a New Orleans Pelican team that is playing better as of late. The Pelicans enter tonight’s matchup having won three out of their last four games with wins over the Clippers, Jazz, and Wizards. Their offense is starting to click and if you blink hard enough you can start to see the team that David Griffin envisioned around Zion Williamson. Most fans have identified the next three games as a chance to course-correct and get back on track. Let’s see if tonight’s game presents any value from a gambling perspective.
Spread: Mavs -2.5(-110)
Moneyline: Mavs -140
This line opened with the Mavs as 4.5 point favorites. The line has gone down 2 points practically overnight indicating that a ton of money and individual wagers are coming in on the Pelicans. It’s hard to blame bettors. Simply put, the Mavericks have looked terrible in their last two games. The Pelicans, on the other hand, are playing better than they did early in the season. In their most recent victory over the Clippers, center Jonas Valanciunas hit SEVEN first-half threes on his way to a career-high 39 points.
Also, despite a worse record, the Pelicans appear to be playing with better chemistry. A bet on the Mavericks is taking a leap of faith at this particular point in time. They haven’t shot the ball well all season and they don’t have the talent to simply roll the ball out and expect to win against the worst teams in the league. If you’re a believer in the Mavs, the opportunity to bet them as 2.5 point favorites is a gift. If you’re cautiously optimistic about them, you may want to find value elsewhere.
ADVICE: The line is low enough for you to avoid the Moneyline. If you think the team gets back on track tonight, take the Mavericks and lay the points.
The Pelicans are clicking on offense and have scored 125 points in three of their last four games. The Mavericks have better defensive metrics than you think but they struggle to contain post players and long athletic wings. It just so happens the Pelicans have Jonas Valanciunas and Brandon Ingram.
With Willie Cauley-Stein still out due to personal reasons, Dwight Powell and Moses Brown are unlikely to put up much of a fight against Valanciunas (more on that later). If the Mavericks have some sort of positive regression to the mean from the outside, tonight’s game has the potential to be a shootout.
ADVICE: Pound the over
Two Team Moneyline Parlay
There aren’t any live underdogs tonight so let’s move on to…..
Jonas Valanciunas Points Over 18.5(-105)
Brandon Ingram Points Over 21.5(-120)
Jonas Valanciunas REBs Over 11.5(-115)
Luka Doncic REBs Over 7.5(-135)