The game against the Orlando Magic was uncomfortably close for most of the game. The actual result never was but Dallas’s lead hovered between 10 and 12 points for most of the game. If you, like I, had the Mavericks, the game had a ton of intrigue considering it wasn’t an aesthetically pleasing game. Thankfully, a 4th quarter push blew the game open and those of us that struggle to stay up late were able to go to bed at a reasonable time. Tonight, however, they have a much livelier opponent in the OKC Thunder.
Spread: Mavs -11.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Mavs -720
The Moneyline is absurdly high so you have to be comfortable laying 11.5 points. If we look at their last game, they didn’t shoot particularly well and Luka himself didn’t play one of his best games. Against 28 other teams, that is probably a loss. Against the Magic, it was a comfortable, but ugly, win. The Thunder play with a ton more effort than the Magic and, some would argue, have more talent than them. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is a really good player. Josh Giddey is raw but has shown flashes of being a really good playmaker in the NBA. Lu Dort’s shot comes and goes but his on-ball defense on Luka is among the best in the league. The Mavs should win this game but they will have to play a lot better than they did against Orlando on Saturday.
ADVICE: Lay the Points. Don’t be overaggressive in terms of units but another late push could get you the cover.
If you’re going to lay the points, bet the under. The Mavs would have to hold the Thunder to 90 or so points in order for them to cover and the under to hit. While it’s possible our defense suffocates OKC, expecting them to hold a team to 90 points is a tough ask at only -110.
Advice: Take the Over
Two-Team Moneyline Parlay
Advice: Look elsewhere. The Moneyline is simply too high to parlay with anything and still be able to squeeze out a modicum of value.