Opening night for the Mavs has arrived! A rematch of the Western Conference Semifinals kicks off the season for both teams. The Suns were left with a terrible taste in their mouth as their last game was a blowout loss courtesy of Luka and the gang. Devin Booker and company will have all the motivation to play well and avenge that brutal loss. With some new pieces in the front court the Mavs look to prove they are in fact the better team. Let’s take a look at the betting landscape for the game.
Fixture: Dallas Mavericks vs Phoenix Suns
Date and Time: Wednesday, October 19, 2022; 9pm CST
Venue: Footprint Center, Phoenix, AZ
Spread: Suns -4.5
Mavs ML: +155
Odds up to date as of 11am CST from DraftKings Sportsbook
The line for the game has remained relatively still with some movement in the Mavericks direction. A week ago, you could find the line at -5, meaning the line has dropped half a point. With it being the first game of the year it’s difficult to know how much rust will be there for each team.
With regards to the spread I am leaning Mavs +4.5. The Suns have lost some depth with McGee and Crowder. Their second unit is not as strong as it was last season as they will be leaning on Cam Payne and Dario Saric. The Mavs second unit will be heavily leaning on Christian Wood and Spencer Dinwiddie. Give the edge to the Mavs in that respect. Mavs ML is intriguing as well. $100 bet to win $155.
The O/U is interesting as we look back to the playoff series, only 2 of the 7 games went over 218. I will admit opening day basketball is much different than playoff basketball. It is interesting to look at yesterday’s O/U for the Celtics/Sixers and Warriors/Lakers. Both of their overs smashed. I believe the no “take foul” rule will help with more scoring in the game so if you want to take advantage of that number while you can I completely understand. I will be staying away from the O/U however, if I was to pick one, I would lean over as the trend seems to be that way so far this year with new rules in place.
Let’s take a look at some player props that have caught my eye.
Luka Doncic over 7.5 assists. Look for Luka to get guys involved early. Double teams should come his way quite a bit and we all know this man has eyes in the back of his head. This prop is currently at -150, so if you can snag it on PrizePicks that would be a great piece.
Devin Booker over 24.5 points. I expect Booker to get around 20-25 shots up making this prop easily in reach. Booker will have to carry the scoring load for the Suns to remain competitive and he is more than capable of doing that.
First Basket Prop
When looking at the first basket prop its essential to look at who is winning the tip. At 7ft, McGee is slightly taller than Ayton who is 6’11. Mavs should get first attempt at getting the opening bucket. An early pick and roll with McGee coupled with a pass out to either Dorian or Reggie is what I am going with here. Dorian is at +1100 odds while Reggie is at +1200. Either one has great value in my opinion.
PLAY OF THE DAY
Spencer Dinwiddie points + assists over 19.5. I love the prop as I think Spencer has a chance to get this with just his points alone. He averaged 3.8 assists last year and I expect that number to increase this year with the addition of Christian Wood also running with that second unit. The season is finally back, lets enjoy it and make some money in the process!