The Mavericks laid a dinosaur sized egg against the Magic and simply went through the motions against a lesser team. Thankfully, tonight’s game against the Wizards should bring the best out of Luka and the rest of the team. Luka’s pride won’t allow him to be upstaged by his former teammate Kristaps Porzingis. With Christian Wood and Tim Hardaway Jr. out for tonight’s game, go ahead and lock in every Luka over you can get your hands on.
Date and Time: Thursday November 10th, 2022; 6:00 PM CST
Venue: Capital One Arena.
Spread: Mavericks -3.5 (-115)
Mavs ML: -165
At first glance, the over/under total seems curiously low. Vegas might be banking on the fact that the Mavs are on the second game of a back to back and could be playing with heavy legs. It’s too early in the season to assume fatigue so the over looks like good value play. As far as the spread, that half point gives me pause. This game has a tight ending written all over it so I’d recommend staying away from the spread and focusing on some player props instead.
Kristaps Porzingis Over 20.5 Points (-110)
Spencer Dinwiddie Over 17.5 Points(-110)
Kristaps Porzingis Over 7.5 Rebounds (+120)
Kristaps Porzingis Over 1.5 Three Pointers (-110)
Luka Doncic Over 33.5 Points
Porzingis has played well this season and I expect him to tear the Javale McGee/Dwight Powell combo to shreds. Ideally, McGee would play no more than 15-18 minutes but if Porzingis is dominating Powell on the block and helping the Wizards create a ton of second chance opportunities, we could see more McGee than we’re comfortable with. I am tempted to take a JaVale Mcgee over but wagering hard earned money on JaVale McGee might be rock bottom and my pride simply won’t allow it.
For the Mavs, Dinwiddie will have a green light and should get more than enough shots to hit his over. Tonight, however, is about Luka. If Porzingis puts the Mavs front line in the spin cycle the way i anticipate, Luka is going to take it personally and look to impose his will on KP and the rest of the wizards. 33.5 is a high number when you consider he had an off night last night, but a motivated Luka is a scary Luka.
Play of the Day:
Kristaps Porzingis Double-Double (+225)
Luka Doncic Triple Double (+600)
With Porzingis and Luka likely to lead their perspective teams in scoring, there’s value on these long shot bets.