The Mavs are coming off a 114-105 win over the Orlando Magic where Luka put up a season high 44 points. The Mavs currently sit at an underwhelming 3-3 on the young season with a game against a surprising 6-2 Utah team up next. With Lauri Markkanen leading the way for the Jazz, it will provide a great test early in the season.
Fixture: Utah Jazz vs Dallas Mavericks
Date and Time: Wednesday, November 2, 2022; 7:30pm CST
Venue: American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX
Spread: Mavs -5.5
Mavs ML: -225
Odds up to date as of 11am CST from DraftKings Sportsbook
The Mavs come into this game as 5.5-point favorites. No surprise here as on paper the Mavs should take of the Jazz without too much stress. However, as we have seen in the New Orleans and OKC game, no game is going to come without its hardships. Giving the Jazz 6 points to play with makes me want to stay away from the spread. The Mavs are currently 3-3 against the spread overall while being 1-2 against the spread at home. Couple this with a tough Jazz team, it may be beneficial to look elsewhere for value.
The over/under for this game is set at 221.5. The Mavs are scoring 117.8 points per game as a team, while the Jazz are scoring 117.5 points per game. The Mavs have given up over 100 points in 2 of the 3 home games up to this point as well as averaging 120.7 points per game at home. If this pace continues, I love the over here. The Jazz have shown they are capable of scoring points and keeping games close. The overs have hit in 5 of the 6 games so far and I would not be surprised if this line moves up before tip.
Let’s take a look at some player props that have caught my eye.
Luka Doncic over 2.5 threes (-150)
Luka is shooting nearly 9 threes a game, and the three-point shooting slump will not last forever. While the prop is pretty juiced at -150 it can make a great parlay piece with other props.
Lauri Markkanen over 9.5 assists + rebounds (-120)
Lauri is averaging over 9 rebounds a game and nearly 3 assists per game. There will be plenty of rebound opportunities for him today and I see him clearing this number on rebounds alone.
First Basket Prop
The Mavs should win the tip pretty easily today, meaning they get first attempt at first basket prop. Luka at +320 could be a quick way to turn $100 into $320. Javale McGee at +500 is worth a look with a pick and roll to start the game. If you think a kick out to the wing is the way to go you can go with Dorian with +900 odds.
PLAY OF THE DAY
Mavs team total over 113.5 points (-115). The Mavs are averaging 117.8 points per game, and I do not see the Jazz stopping this offense. Luka has been on a tear and expect him to continue to put on a show. At -115, betting a $115 would win you $100.