Date and Time: Wednesday, December 14th, 2022; 8:00 PM CST
Venue: American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX.
Spread: Mavericks -2 (-110)
Mavs ML: -130
Odds up to date as of 11:30 AM CST from DraftKings
Dallas and Cleveland have both been up and down in the last few weeks, as both teams enter tonight 5-5 in their last 10. Dallas has missed going over their point total only 10 times this season, but half of those games were against a top-12 defense. The Cavaliers are second in the league in defensive rating, so I expect the point total to go under tonight. Dallas has defended Donovan Mitchell well in the past, and shutting him down will be a key to the under tonight.
Luka Doncic over 8.5 assists (+120)
Donovan Mitchell over 4.5 assists (+100)
With Mitchell and Darius Garland at the opposing guard positions, Doncic will be guarded by Lamar Stevens or another wing. They are going to have to double Doncic if they want to slow him down, meaning Mitchell and Garland will have to rotate a lot, and being small guards they will not be able to close out to shooters effectively. Doncic should have plenty of assist opportunities tonight.
On the other side, Dallas defends Mitchell as well as anybody. He will be forced to give the ball up and create, and this low assist line has a lot of value. Mitchell went over this line every game but one in their six game playoff series against Dallas last April.
Player of the Day:
Luka Doncic over 9.5 first quarter points (+100)
At even money, this is an automatic play. Doncic leads the league in first quarter scoring at nearly 12 points per first quarter. He plays the entirety of the period and shoots eight times with three free throws on average. The opportunity will be there, and he should be able to soar over this line.