Mavericks Odds: What’s hitting and what’s not

As the season has just eclipsed the one-third mark, trends have begun to form. A more clear look into who teams are is materializing, as well as players’ roles becoming more defined. As a result of this, being able to predict what will happen is a bit easier, and more interestingly, data is starting to support the betting side of the games.

The Dallas Mavericks are a team that seemingly could win or lose on any given night, making them a difficult choice to bet on. Despite this, the Mavericks have had some real trends throughout the first third of the 2022-23 season. To make your betting life a little less stressful, here is what has been cashing, and what has been burning money through the first 28 games:

Hit: Luka Doncic first quarter points

Doncic leads the league in first quarter scoring (11.5 points per first quarter) by 1.9 points (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is second at 9.6). He plays the entirety of the period, so the volume is always there. On average, he attempts eight shots (three of which are threes) with three free throws on almost 62 percent true shooting. After a fairly sizable sample of this, it is safe to take Doncic’s first quarter points when the line is at 10.5 or less every time.

Miss: Mavericks to cover

Dallas is currently 8-18-2 against the spread this season, covering at a rate of about 29 percent. This has a lot to do with Dallas’ poor performance against sub-500 teams, as they have failed to cover all but one time (12/3 vs Knicks). They play down to their competition, and their record against the spread shows it. Stay away from the spread for the foreseeable future.

Hit: Over the points total

Dallas’ games have hit over the points total in 17 of their 28 games this season, or 61 percent. Out of the 11 games that went under, six were against teams in the top 12 in defensive rating. The other five included Dallas’ loss to Orlando and their weird 98-97 loss to a severely undermanned Denver team. If the Mavericks are playing someone outside of the top 10 or so in defensive rating, the point total over is almost a lock.

Miss: Reggie Bullock points + rebounds + assists

Bullock’s struggles early have been well-documented and not out of the ordinary. Every season of his career he has shot poorly until December, and the trend continued this year. He has gone over 9.5 points+rebounds+assists (which is already a low line) only 11-of-27 times. Until Bullock proves that he can bounce back once again, and possibly get more minutes after being benched, betting on him is futile.

Hit: Spencer Dinwiddie assists

Dinwiddie is averaging 5.3 assists per game this season, and his prop is normally around 4.5 or five when Doncic plays. After Dallas played Doncic off-ball more against Oklahoma City, Dinwiddie displayed his ability to distribute at a high volume. He had 10 assists against the Thunder, seven against the Cavaliers yesterday, and the high end of five assists should be expected from him going forward. If his prop is ever at five or below, it should be added to your parlay.