The Mavs are coming off a rather disappointing 15-point loss against the Cavs. Pair this with the Maxi injury news and it is safe to say, us fans are not in a good place right now. The good news is that there are 82 games, and the Mavs get a chance to bounce back tonight against the Blazers. The Blazers are playing well as of late as they bring a 3-game win streak into this game. Despite the win streak the Mavs remain favorites headed into the game. Let’s take a look at the betting landscape for tonight’s matchup.
Fixture: Portland Trailblazers vs Dallas Mavericks
Date and Time: Friday, December 16, 2022; 7:30pm CST
Venue: American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX
Spread: Mavs -3.5
Mavs ML: -170
Odds up to date as of 1:00 pm on Draft Kings Sportsbook
The Mavericks come into this game as three and a half point favorites. Josh Green and Maxi Kleber remain out while the Trailblazers have no big injury news. I think the Mavs matchup well with the Blazers. With no one able to guard Luka I think this a prime position for him to have a monster game. The key will be to slow down Damian Lillard and Anfernee Simons, who have both been playing well this season. The public is on the Blazers tonight as 57% of the handle is on them to cover the spread. I will be fading the public and will take the Mavs with the points. I think this is the perfect bounce back game as Luka will put up 30+, leading us to the win.
The O/U is set at 226 for this game and I am leaning towards the under. The public is all on the over as 86% of the handle is on the over. This is a matchup of two bottom five teams when it comes to pace of play. Both teams will need to be efficient for the over to hit. I’m not saying this cannot happen but I am going to trust fading the public when the discrepancy in the handle is so large.
Let’s take a look at some player props that stand out today.
Luka Doncic over 32.5 points (-105).
The books are planning on Luka to have a big game as his point line is inflated a couple points more than usual. This matchup is favorable for him, and I look for him to have his way tonight. At -105 you are getting slightly better odds than other props that have a little more juice to them.
Jusuf Nurkic under 10.5 rebounds (-130)
This line jumped out to me as I believe it is just too high. Nurkic is averaging 10.3 rebound per game on the year which means he would have to go above his average against a team that plays with a slower pace meaning less possessions and less opportunities for rebounds. Look for Nurkic to be switched onto Luka quite off, pulling him away from the basket. Josh Hart is also an excellent rebounder and if you want a rebound prop I would suggest his at over 7.5.
Same Game Parlay
If you are new to DraftKings Sportsbook you can find a category of bets labeled “Quick SGP”. This stands for “same game parlay”. One SGP has caught my eye and it’s at +1700 odds. The parlay consists of Doncic over 30 points, Lillard over 30 points, Dinwiddie over 20 points, and Simons over 20 points. At +1700 odds you can win some good Christmas money if the main scorers for each team do their job!
PLAY OF THE DAY
Luka Doncic over 41.5 points + assists (-110).
The play of the day had to be Luka. I look for him to score early and often and when the double teams come, he should rack up assists. I love this line and believe he should easily clear it.