Before we get into gambling odds, here’s the latest info on Luka Doncic:
Jason Kidd on Luka Doncic: “We’ll see how he feels at game time.”— Tim MacMahon (@espn_macmahon) April 21, 2022
So, what does that mean for gambling odds? It means you’re going to have to make some guesses. Let’s get into it.
Spread: Mavs +6.5 (-105)
Moneyline: Mavs +220
This is going to be one of the toughest games to bet on all year. Luka Doncic is a game-time decision, and he’s (obviously) a big factor in potential outcomes. For that reason, I would stay away from the moneyline. If Luka doesn’t play, it’s going to be tough for the Mavs to come into Utah and win their second game in a row. The crowd is going to be energetic, and Utah will be desperate for a win.
With all that being said, I really like the Mavs to cover the spread. Dallas has shown it can compete without Luka Doncic. And the Jazz aren’t exactly the 2017 Warriors. They have major flaws. With Luka in the lineup, I think the Mavs should easily cover. Without Luka in the lineup, they can still do it.
Advice: Take the Mavs to cover the spread, but watch how the line shifts throughout the day. If you feel more comfortable waiting until a decision has been made on Luka, that’s understandable.
Game 1 total points: 192
Game 2 total points: 214
The oddsmakers clearly think Game 2 was a closer indicator for what the over/under should be, and I agree. Game 1’s tend to be weird. Teams are feeling each other out. The nerves are high. I would look to Game 2 as the mold for what this series will look like.
Advice: Take the over. Both of these teams are starting to figure out the weaknesses in the opposing defenses.
Two-Team Moneyline Parlay
Mavs and Wolves: +572
There are only two other games tonight, so our options are limited here. If you wanted to pair the Mavs with the Warriors, I would get it. But the first game in altitude makes me nervous, and Denver desperately needs a win. Instead, I paired the Mavs with the Wolves in their first home playoff game since the Jimmy Butler days.
We saw how rowdy the Timberwolves crowd can be in the play-in tournament. The playoffs will be another level higher. It wouldn’t shock me if the Grizzlies won tonight, but you’re getting underdog value with the Wolves.
Advice: A lot has to go right for this parlay to hit, so I would understand staying away. However, the odds are tempting, so it’s worth a sprinkle.