Well, folks. After a couple of weird occurrences in Round 1 and Round 2, we’re now in the Western Conference Finals. Look at us! *Cue Paul Rudd meme*
Despite giving Phoenix a beatdown on their home court in Game 7 of the previous round, the Mavericks are still underdogs tonight in Game 1. I get it. Usually, the home team wins Game 1. But can we find some betting value in tonight’s game? Let’s get into it.
All odds are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook and are current as of 12:00 p.m. CT, May 18.
Spread: Mavs +5.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Mavs +185
I don’t like the moneyline tonight. The Warriors will have an arena full of fans ready to rock, and as previously mentioned, the home team usually wins Game 1. But the spread? Now we’re talking.
I’m surprised the spread isn’t closer to 2-3 points. 5.5 feels like too many, especially considering the Mavs might be the better team in this series.
The Warriors have no one to guard Luka Doncic, and it might take them a game or two to find what works best for them. On the flipside, the Mavs have some quality perimeter defenders to contain Steph Curry. I mean, we all saw what Reggie Bullock did to Chris Paul last series.
Advice: This game feels like it will be close. Both of these teams will need some time to figure eachother out. I like the Mavs to cover the spread.
In Game 1 of a series, picking the over/under is basically flipping a coin. We have no idea how these teams are going to look going up against one another in a playoff setting.
Advice: Stay away.
Two-Team Moneyline Parlay
Mavs and Celtics: +612
Oh, you thought just because there was only one game tonight that I wouldn’t come with a two-team moneyline parlay? Wrong!
We’re still picking two NBA games, we’re just going to go with the Mavs tonight and the Celtics tomorrow. If you don’t like parlays that span over the course of a couple days, then this isn’t for you, and I understand.
The Celtics are underdogs tomorrow night. Do we really expect them to go down 2-0 to this Miami team? I love the Celtics to tie the series tomorrow. It’s the Mavs that I’m more worried about.
Advice: This is worth a sprinkle if you’re feeling lucky.
Here’s our latest podcast, a cross over episode with the Warriors Light Years show. If you can’t see the embed below, click here or go find Mavs Moneyball Podcast in your favorite feed.