Its Wednesday which means we have a two game ESPN slate tonight. The slate begins with a battle between the 2018 draft day swap superstars Luka Doncic and Trae Young. The night cap heads to Denver as the Nuggets play host to the Timberwolves.
Spread: Atlanta +2 (-110), Dallas -2 (-110)
Over/Under: 232.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Atlanta +110, Dallas -130
The next chapter in the Luka vs Trae saga will be written and it should be a close one. With a 232.5 O/U line, the books believe the points should come in bulk tonight. The league’s leading scoring, Luka Doncic, aims to continue his MVP campaign against a Hawks team that is in the bottom half of points allowed this season. On the other side Trae Young looks to take advantage of a Mavs team that is coming off back-to-back losses.
In terms of the spread, the public is all over the Mavs with over 70% of the handle and percentage of bets coming in on their side. I personally see this game being closer than what people are expecting. The Hawks match up well with the Mavs as their big men should prove tough for the Mavericks to handle. Give me the Hawks with the points as they could easily win this game outright making the spread a safer option.
Looking at the over/under, the public loves the over as 82% of the money and 75% of the bets are on the over to hit. I am a bit more skeptical on this line as I see it going either way. I will be staying away from this line but if I had to pick I am leaning towards the under. Luka averages 22 points while Trae averages 20 in their career against each other, which is well below their normal average. The does not bode well for a high team total. Give me the under and full fade the public on this game.
A player prop for this game that stands out to me is:
Luka Doncic over 9.5 assists (+115). As previously stated, Luka averages 22 points against the Hawks. If he is not scoring look for him to be distributing. The Hawks will double team early making Luka pass to his teammates. The potential assists will be there, the shooters have to convert, and this prop should hit easily.
Spread: Minnesota +8 (-115), Denver -8 (-105)
Over/Under: 237 (-110)
Moneyline: Minnesota +260, Denver -315
The late-night game features a battle between potential MVP, Nikola Jokic, and former number one pick Anthony Edwards. The Nuggets are coming off a win last night making this is the second night of a back-to-back for them. Fatigue could possibly play a role in this one however, the number one team in the West should still pull out the win against a mediocre Wolves squad.
In terms of the spread the public is backing the Nuggets as 63% of the handle is on them to cover the spread. With it being a second night of a back-to-back 8 points seems to be a lot of points given. As of right now Jamal Murray has not been ruled out however, the Nuggets are being cautious with him due to his ACL injury. He has been looking great recently as he is averaging nearly 20 points, 5 assists, and 5 boards in his last 10 games. If he is out grabbing Minnesota with the points now seems to be some great value.
Looking at the over/under the public is on the over as 64% of bets are for the over to hit. The Nuggets are averaging 122 points while giving up 120 points on the second night of back-to-back. This bodes well for the over and I will be backing the public. The possessions for both teams should be there making a decent shooting night from both teams the key for the over hitting.
A player prop from this game that stands out to me is:
Jaden McDaniels over 6.5 assists + rebounds (-105). McDaniels is averaging 4 rebounds and 3 assists over the last 10 games. With what should be a solid paced game tonight the opportunities for rebounds should be plentiful. I think this line hits sweat free!
If you choose to gamble, please do so responsibly.