Betting on the Mavericks this season has been a frustrating venture. While Dallas currently sits at a very medial 25-24 this season, their record against the spread leaves even more to be desired. At just 16-31-2, they are currently dead last against the spread (ATS). Covering at just 34% of the time is not going to be making any Mavericks bettor money. Just for some comparison the OKC Thunder are currently the best team ATS as they have a record of 30-16-1, covering over 65% of the time. So how did we get here? Why are the Mavericks so disappointing ATS? Let’s break down the record and look at some trends that have defined the season up to this point.
To begin with, Dallas just 9-17 ATS at home. The biggest discrepancy on a loss comes against the Magic where the books had Dallas as huge 10.5-point favorites. They would lose that game outright by 6 points. A 16.5-point discrepancy on the original line is insane and no doubt left Dallas bettors annoyed. Betting on Mavericks away games are just as bad as their road game record ATS is 7-16. The Magic once again beat them outright while being 8-point underdogs. Luckily they only play the Magic twice a year.
When it comes to facing opponents in the Western conference, Dallas us 12-17 ATS. Going on a 6 consecutive game losing streak ATS vs Western conference opponents set a trend early in the season. The Mavs are currently on a 3-game losing streak in this category with their next chance to break the streak coming on the 26th against the Suns. Looking at Eastern conference opponents is where we see the real problem. The Mavericks are an abysmal 4-16 ATS vs Eastern conference opponents. Going on a 9 game losing streak in this category set a negative trend Dallas has yet to turn around.
If there is any positive to their record ATS it would be their record at home vs the West. They sit an even 8-8 at home. An even .500 record is the best trend the Mavericks have ATS. If you’re looking to bet Dallas with the spread, at home vs a Western conference opponent might be your best option. The worst option comes while they are at home vs an Eastern conference opponent. Sitting at just 1-9, this is by far where the Mavericks have struggled the most. Losing ATS in their first 8 games in this category has set a profitable trend betting against Dallas.
Why is Dallas so bad ATS? I believe it has been a mixture of disappointing play from the Mavericks as well as the books being overconfident in how good this Dallas team really is. As a frequent bettor on this team the best advice might be to just stick to moneyline bets until we see a positive trend in ATS wins.