Date and Time: Saturday, January 7th, 2023; 7:00 PM CST
Venue: American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX
Spread: Dallas -7(-110)
Mavs ML: -265 (all odds courtest of Draftkings)
The Mavericks have won seven of their last eight games but are coming off of a blowout loss to the Boston Celtics. Luka Doncic struggled in that game after one of the best individual runs in NBA history. The Mavericks will try to get back to their winning ways tonight. Pelicans will be missing both Brandon Ingram and Zion Williamson which is why the Mavericks are seven-favorites. The Mavericks are 7-12-2 against the spread at home despite being 15-6 at home. This means tonight is a fantastic opportunity to “middle” this game.
Middling in gambling means betting in opposite ways when there is a spread of some type and hoping that the result falls within the middle. With a 7-point spread, you can bet the Mavericks moneyline AND the Pelicans +7. If the Pelicans win outright as they have done previously this season against the Mavericks while injured, the Pelicans +7 wager covers some of the price of the Mavericks moneyline. If the Mavericks win by more than 7, both bets cancel out. If the Mavericks win by seven or less, both wagers make money. Taking the Pelicans spread, essentially drops those odds to -165.
Christian Wood 1.5 Blocks (+165)
Honestly this prop feels like theft. Wood has had over 1.5 blocks in 9 of his last 11 games. He only had one block in against the Celtics, but that was an outlier. It is tempting to take blocks plus steals for Wood which is also 1.5 for added safety. This is a mistake. The line drops to -145 if you add in steals and Wood has only recorded a steal in four of his last 11 games. Neither of the games where he failed to record more than a block also contained a steal. Take the extra value and just take blocks. Also, with Williamson and Ingram out, it is much more likely the Pelicans take some worse shots giving him more opportunities.
There will be no player of the day because any funds one is willing to put into player props should go into that specific prop. Getting +165 odds in something that has happened in over 80 percent of recent games is as good as it gets gambling wise. As always, be responsible with any gambling that you may choose to do.