Mavs Moneyball - All Things Mavericks vs. HeatRick Carlisle approved.https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/community_logos/50869/mmb-fav.png2013-01-02T23:05:59-06:00http://www.mavsmoneyball.com/rss/stream/36004232013-01-02T23:05:59-06:002013-01-02T23:05:59-06:00Dallas Final Score: Mavs Fall to Heat, 109-119
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<p>The Mavs make a few mistakes late, fall to the Heat in overtime</p> <p>Ugh. I just want you all to know that it is statistically VERY hard to lose six straight overtime games. But our Dallas Mavericks (13-20) found a way tonight against the Miami Heat (22-8) in a nail biter that no one saw coming. <span>O.J. Mayo</span> led the way with 30 points and six assists for Dallas, while Lebron James reminded everyone why he's the best player alive, just missing a triple double, scoring 32, grabbing 12 rebounds, and dishing out 9 assists.</p>
<p>Okay, I'm not being fair. To say the Mavs "found a way" to lose isn't fair. Some poorly timed bad decisions paired with a ridiculous no call resulted in the overtime. I'm getting ahead of myself though. Suffice it to say it was nice to see a solid effort from the guys on the tail end of a road back-to-back, but it wasn't enough.</p>
<p>O.J. Mayo attacked from the opening possession, putting the Mavs up following the tip. Dallas put pressure on the Heat all period, going up by 11 at one point before an 8-0 run saw Miami regain some control. Transition success was the name of the game for everyone from Mayo to <span>Darren Collison</span>, as well as <span>Vince Carter</span> and even <span>Elton Brand</span>, who was on the receiving end of a nice Carter pass for an old fashioned three point play. The quarter ended 30-22, with Dallas punishing the Heat on the glass.</p>
<p>The second quarter saw the Heat push back in a big way. The Heat defense clamped down a bit which flustered the Dallas offense at times. They narrowed the Maverick lead to four points before a fantastic Mayo three pointer, a Collison free throw, and another Mayo jumper pushed the lead back to 10. A Wade and-one, which was a phantom foul (where he simply fell down and got a call) paired with a technical free throw after Dirk correctly argued the refs missed Wade mugging him on a pass, and a couple of turnovers which resulted in Heat points brought the Heat back within two.</p>
<p>Dallas got the lead back to four, when Lebron scored on an offensive rebound. He then hammered Dirk under the basket, but alas, no call. James then took the ball down and got fouled for free throws, tying the score 48-48. A Carter layup followed, then two more Lebron free throws, and a Kaman lay in to end the half had Dallas up 2, 52-50.</p>
<p>Miami took control in the third quarter, getting up 60-54 in a hurry. Vince Carter began to look his age as he took and missed a number of shots, paired with some turnovers. However, while Vince Carter occasionally does too much, he also makes athletic shots, as he scored five quick points after a rough start to the quarter to bring Dallas back within one.</p>
<p>The game then got wild, with each team hitting some crazy shots, but the Heat eventually pushed their lead back to six, with the score 78-72. <span>Rodrigue Beaubois</span> found Dirk for a three, then Dirk found himself being guarded by <span>Ray Allen</span> and converted a beautiful whirling dervish lay in. James countered with what can only be described as an MVP type shot; a fade away corner three as the shot clock expired. Dirk got fouled on the next possession and scored both free throws, as the quarter ended 81-79 in favor of Miami</p>
<p>The final quarter started with Roddy missing two shots in terrible fashion (remember when he was good? You don't? Me either. More on him below). Luckily, the Heat were not able to capitalize too much. Mayo scored his first points of the second half on a gorgeous pull up which was followed by a <span>Shawn Marion</span> bank shot runner. <span>Chris Kaman</span> scored a lay up after a missed travel to bring Dallas within two. O.J. Mayo then hit a three from Orlando at the end of the shot clock to give Dallas the lead. Marion scored on a sideline inbounds back-cut to push the lead to three before a Dwyane Wade lay-in.</p>
<p>The lead stayed at three for a bit before Collison drove to the right and floated an amazing pass to the left corner to a wide open O.J. Mayo to give Dallas a 97-91 advantage. At this point the game gets silly, with Ray Allen answering Mayo's shot with a big three, followed by Vince Carter slashing along the baseline before finding <span>Dirk Nowitzki</span> for three at the top of the key, keeping the Dallas lead at six.</p>
<p>Here, things begin to fall apart for Dallas. Lebron missed a couple of free throws but Dallas wasn't able to extend the lead any. Wade and Lebron both scored lay-ups to cut the lead to two. Dirk made one out of two after getting fouled to make the score 101-98. The Heat missed the next possession, but the following play decided the game. Dirk received a pass and was simply bowled over by Dwayne Wade, who then took the ball and dunked it. It was an absolutely atrocious no-call.</p>
<p>Vince Carter then took a terrible three-point attempt which lead to Miami pushing the ball and getting <span>Shane Battier</span> a wide open corner three to give Miami a 103-101 advantage. Luckily, Dirk bailed out Dallas hitting a fall away to tie the game and send it to overtime.</p>
<p>Ah, yes, overtime. Where Dallas lost, again, for the sixth time this season. The Heat simply began making shots they'd been missing the rest of the game. The Mavericks were lucky to be in it at all, to be honest. The Dallas offense fell apart in a hurry, as Carlisle first opted to sit Dirk before realizing that wasn't a great idea, then paired him with Shawn Marion for a small ball line up which wasn't able to contain the attacking Heat offense. The game was over within a minute of the overtime, and Miami ended up winning 119-109.</p>
<p>Some notes:</p>
<p>-Earlier I mentioned corner threes. Tom Haberstroh of ESPN put out a piece analyzing corner threes, who shoots the most and the least, who makes the most and the least, etc. It's <a style="background-color: #ffffff;" href="http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/story/_/page/PerDiem-130101/nba-ranking-team-corner-3s" target="_blank">fascinating</a> if you have an ESPN Insider account. As far as Dallas goes, we don't shoot a ton of corner threes and make even fewer. This is specifically due to Dirk's absence; the 2011 title group hit a number of corner threes as they marched to the championship. Putting Dirk in the center of the floor acts like a QB in a spread offense and more often than not, ball reversal out of double teams means we have guys open in the corner. The problem is that the players Dallas does have aren't able to hit the shots very much.</p>
<p>-I may get railed for this but I do not care. There is no way Lebron James and Dwayne Wade played this entire game without committing a single foul. There simply isn't. I counted two times Lebron got away with highway robbery and at least three times Wade didn't get called for something he should have. I've seen and read the various smart people analysis of why Lebron doesn't get called for fouls. It's hogwash. He commits fouls that aren't called because he is a smart savvy player who butters up the refs with kindness and stares them down when things don't go his way. More power to him, of course, but I think it takes away from the game. The Wade no call near the end of the fourth was inexcusable. Even the Miami commentators stifled laughs as they replayed the "steal". Oh well, at least <a href="http://www.sbnation.com/nba/2011/6/2/2204019/miami-heat-ugg-boots-man-moon-boots-nba-finals" target="_blank">this guy</a> isn't one of our fans. To be clear, I don't think this stuff caused Dallas to lose. I'm just pissed off by it.</p>
<p>-Dallas shot nine free throws in the first half and eleven the rest of the game. Some of that is due to Miami limiting the Dallas fast break offense. But the rest is due to the refs not blowing their whistles.</p>
<p>-Vince Carter looked like a 35 year old. 36 minutes is too many for him and makes him worthless. I know Carlisle feels like he has no other choice but it's not going to look good as the season goes on. He was second on the team on shot attempts with 16 yet only scored 15 points. Rough.</p>
<p>-Mayo shot the ball well. He also got blocked twice on long range jump shots. He also had six turnovers. He really needs to stop turning the ball over so much. It's getting old.</p>
<p>-Some Miami fans were apparently shouting at Chris Kaman thinking he was Brian Cardinal. That's hilarious. It's also sad. Know your NBA players, lower level Miami Heat "fans". <a href="http://www.cbssports.com/mcc/blogs/entry/22748484/25819456" target="_blank">FAN UP</a>! Or something.</p>
<p>-Does anyone remember when Roddy was good? He's so bad. Some of his missed shots feel like turnovers. One in particular, a swooping lay up which hit the top of the glass and bounced right to a Heat player, made me yell at the TV.</p>
<p>Okay. I'm done. See you later in the week! </p>
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<th class="td-left"> <span>Final - 1.2.2013 </span> </th> <th>1</th> <th>2</th> <th>3</th> <th>4</th> <th>OT 1</th> <th>Total</th>
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<td class="td-name"><span class="loss"> <a href="https://www.mavsmoneyball.com/">Dallas Mavericks</a> </span></td>
<td>30</td>
<td>22</td>
<td>27</td>
<td>24</td>
<td>6</td>
<td class="highlight">109</td>
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<td class="td-name"><span class="win"> <a href="https://www.hothothoops.com/">Miami Heat</a> </span></td>
<td>22</td>
<td>28</td>
<td>31</td>
<td>22</td>
<td>16</td>
<td class="highlight">119</td>
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<p class="foot clearfix"><span class="link-more"><span>Complete Coverage ></span></span></p>
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https://www.mavsmoneyball.com/2013/1/2/3830254/dallas-final-score-mavs-fall-to-heat-109-119Kirk Henderson2013-01-02T17:29:49-06:002013-01-02T17:29:49-06:00GAME THREAD: Dallas Mavericks at Miami Heat
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<p>There isn't quite the same excitement that once came with this match-up, that's for sure. But the Mavericks are coming off their first win in a while so maybe they'll carry that momentum.</p> <p><strong>WHO: </strong>The <a href="https://www.hothothoops.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Miami Heat</a> host the <a href="https://www.mavsmoneyball.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Dallas Mavericks</a></p>
<p><strong>WHAT: </strong>The start of a new streak- undefeated in 2013! (?)</p>
<p><strong>WHERE: </strong>American Airlines Arena, Miami, FL</p>
<p><strong>WHEN: </strong>6:30pm CT</p>
<p><strong>HOW: </strong>FSSW | NBALP</p>
<p><strong>THE STORY: </strong>In the last three games, the Miami Heat have lost to the Pisons and the <a href="https://www.brewhoop.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Bucks</a>, and needed overtime to beat the <a href="https://www.orlandopinstripedpost.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Magic</a>. That doesn't mean they're any less dangerous for the Mavericks, but it does mean they're human. Dallas finally showed some spunk in their win over the lowly <a href="https://www.bulletsforever.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Wizards</a> last night, so let's all hope that enthusiasm spills over into this rematch of the 2011 finals. Be sure to visit <a href="http://www.hothothoops.com/">Hot Hot Hoops</a> for more info.</p>
<p>BEAT THE HEAT</p>
https://www.mavsmoneyball.com/2013/1/2/3829252/game-thread-dallas-mavericks-at-miami-heatLJTynan2013-01-02T14:32:25-06:002013-01-02T14:32:25-06:00Game 32: Mavs/Heat Part Duex
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<p>Miami blew Dallas out over a week ago...but now the Mavericks have a win! This isn't your poppa's six-game losing streak Mavs! Sadly, the Heat are still really, really, really good. The Mavericks will need a perfect game to win Wednesday night.</p> <p>Relief. Temporary relief. That's what the Dallas Mavericks got after coming back to beat the Wizards on Tuesday night. It wasn't a pretty win, but it was perhaps a season-saver, as silly as that sounds. Consider this:-</p>
<p>-- The Mavericks were on a six-game losing streak, their worst streak in the Mark Cuban era.</p>
<p>-- The Mavericks were 12-19, their worst record after 31 games since the 1999-2000 season.</p>
<p>Had things gotten worse and the Mavericks lost to the 4-win Wizards, there's not telling the repercussions. A coaching change (<a target="_blank" href="http://www.mavsmoneyball.com/2012/12/31/3820168/rick-carlisle-not-part-of-the-problem">as absurdly misguided that would be</a>), massive roster alterations or a declaration of defeat...it was all there had Dallas failed on Tuesday night.</p>
<p>They won and with it brought temporary relief. Until tonight. Now the Mavericks (13-19) play another great team in the Miami Heat (21-8), a team that smoked them just a short time ago.</p>
<p>Miami is definitely in a different direction than most thought. It's been an interesting evolution. To start, the Heat were a disorganized offensive team that produced points purely from the level of elite talent on the team, not from a cohesive philosophy. That Miami team countered their inconsistent offense with an elite-defense, once again, built on the elite-level talent of LeBron James and Dwyane Wade. The Heat used their exceptional athletes with brutal results: intense traps and great pick and roll coverage.</p>
<p>Slowly but surely, the Heat have switched. It's become more evident this season: the Heat are now more an offensive team than anything. Spurred by more doses of small-ball, the Heat simply overpower you with an offense that seems unstoppable at times.</p>
<p>James is the centerpoint, like always, playing power forward. It worked in the 2012 playoffs but now over a full-season it's really starting to show. Ray Allen, Mike Miller, Shane Battier and Rashard Lewis are all shooting over 40 percent from three and Mario Chalmers is hitting a respectable 36 percent. Miami creates mismatches all over the court and surrounds James with these shooters to pick apart defenses in the half-court. It almost doesn't seem fair.</p>
<p>And we haven't even talked about Dwyane Wade, who's putting up a "quiet" 22 points per game while shooting over 50 percent from the floor and Chris Bosh, who's shooting an absurd 60 percent (!)<a target="_blank" href="http://www.hoopdata.com/player.aspx?name=Chris%20Bosh"> from 16-23 feet</a>, just feasting off James and Wade's penetration.</p>
<p>Then you have James who, despite already being nine years in, is getting better. Just look at the December he had:</p>
<p>(Per-game average) 27.5 points, 7.5 assists, 8.1 rebounds on 55/40/77 shooting splits (that's field goal percentage, three-point percentage and free throw percent.)</p>
<p>The trade-off this season has been the defense. Miami isn't awful, but being 18th in defensive efficiency is a far-cry from the top-5 defense the Heat are capable of fielding. Interestingly enough, Miami has <a target="_blank" href="http://www.miamiherald.com/2012/12/22/3152974/going-big-is-paying-dividends.html">gone back to their traditional lineup</a> in hopes of getting the defense back on track.</p>
<p>Big or small, Miami feats on turnovers with high-pressure traps at the top of the key and in the corners. Throw the ball away against Miami and forget it, the Heat are most likely getting points. Dallas fans know that all too well and even when The Mavericks prevailed in the 2011 Finals, the Heat's ability to create instant offense out of turnovers still gave Dallas fits.</p>
<p>This is a Mavericks site and I hate to go on and on about the opponent, but it's worthy praise. Amid all the stories about the Clippers success, the Lakers troubles and Oklahoma City's steady-rise, the Heat still have the best player on the best team in the league.</p>
<p>It'll be difficult for the Mavericks to top. The Heat's biggest weakness (rebounding) is not something the Mavericks can exploit. Still, Dirk Nowitzki is rounding into form and only played 17 minutes Tuesday night, despite his good play and a relatively close game. I wonder if Carlisle was saving Dirk for tonight. Hopefully he was.</p>
<p>With Dirk performing at Dirk-like levels against the Wizards (5 of 7 shooting, 11 points), there was a notable difference in the Mavericks offense. O.J. Mayo saw less traps (0 turnovers) and Darren Collison had more room to roam in the paint (7 FTAs, 8 assists). Elton Brand sprung free for a few short jumpers...it just...<i>worked</i>. Without Dirk, the Mavericks looked out of place and out of shorts. It made sense because the roster was put together this summer expecting a healthy Dirk. Mayo was supposed to benefit with more open looks beyond the arc, Collison was supposed to attack and slash off Dirk screens and Elton Brand and Chris Kaman would get free looks at the rim thanks to all the attention teams pay to Dirk at the free throw line. As Dirk gets healthier, we'll see this offense turn it around.</p>
<p>Tonight will be the ultimate test. If Dirk is up for it, expect 20-25 minutes and maybe more. I think Dirk is getting close to starting and hopefully tonight proves it.</p>
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https://www.mavsmoneyball.com/2013/1/2/3828636/game-32-the-dallas-mavericks-travel-to-miami-for-another-showdownJosh Bowe